Ethiopia : Ethiopia on the verge of collapse


             When the Eritrean president advisor Yemane Gebreab crossed his arms in support of the oromo protest at the United Nations he was not doing this out of his sympathy for the oromo people .Since Eritrea it self is ruled by one of the most repressive regimes in the world .Eritreans have grieved over their fate for too long .Their pristine country and energetic people could have attained so much in the last twenty five years since they liberated their country with untold sacrifices .Isayas Afeworki has killed the Eritrean resourcefulness and entrepreneurship and is holding their dream hostage .He has gambled too much with the peoples dedication and commitment to develop their country .He caused their dream and aspiration for a prosperous and peaceful country to vanish .

           Oromia is the backbone of Ethiopian economy. Addis Ababa formerly called Finfine which is surrounded by Oromia accounts for 40% of the country’s GDP .The succession of Oromia from Ethiopia will end the state of Ethiopia it self .Major Industry’s with in the country are located in Oromia .Ethnic Nationalism has never been as high as recent months in Ethiopia .The Amhara’s has risen up claiming the Tigrean part of Welkait and Tegede .Many Tigrean owned business  and homes have been turned to ashes in the Amhara part of Gondar and Gojjam .TPLF troops have confronted armed protesters and rebels in the Western part of Amhara .

         Welkait and Tegede were part of Gondar during the Derg military rule.When the weyanne forces toppled the Derg regime through an armed struggle.They divided the country based on Ethnicity and language.Welkait and Tegede which were part of Gondar were demarcated to Tigray so do eastern part of Tigray with Afar speakers demarcated to Afar region.But a lot of dwellers in Welkait and Tegede also claim they are Amharas .Welkait and Tegede also border Eritrea .Future Amahara state will need access to the port  and Amhara Nationals have envisioned the Eritrean port of Massawa .Due to its geographical proximity. TPLF weyanne is building a railway to link it’s Tigray region with the port of Djibouti. The reason weyanne do not want to end the Ethio-Eritrea war is it benefits from the placement of 85%of the national army in Tigray .logistic for the army are bought from the factories located in Tigray .50,000 militias in the region are on government payroll .Most of Ethiopia’s mechanized army is placed in Tigray region.

          In the further east were Natural gas was found and the Chinese giant is constructing oil pipeline to the port of Djibouti there is no doubt that ONLF will intensify its armed struggle. Alshabab has recently been controlling large swaths of Somalia unchecked .The Americans have closed their Arbaminch base which were frequently striking Alshabab.Ethiopian Army is busy crushing internal rebellion and leaving space for Alshabab to resurrect.

             Benishangul region  has Africa’s biggest  Dam project .The grand Renaissance Dam .It’s construction is being frequently hampered by luck of funds.With the recent uprising in Ethiopia and the bloody crackdown of protesters TPLF/weyanne will be unable to secure any future funds from the Diaspora.The Egyptian want to sabotage it’s construction by any means possible .They have been using Eritrea as a proxy to supply arms to Ethiopian rebels.In the recent uprising in the Amhara region the price of AK-47 has been as low as 2000Birr.supplied by Eritrea and financed by Egypt. The reason weyanne built the grand Renaissance Dam in Benishangul is not to benefit Benishangul from the construction of the dam or the revenue which will be generated from the sale of electricity to the neighboring countries .But with the rebellion of the Amharas and with the collapse of the state they don’t want the Amharas to go away with the total control of the dam.The Dam it self is built 40km from the border of Sudan.The Sudanese President has frequently visited Ethiopia despite being issued an arrest warrant by the ICC.

          TPLF has used live ammunition on protesters at the Irecha ceremony on Bishoftu and the anger that followed targeted so many business related to the ruling party. Multi-million dollar companies are targeted and set a light by protesters. Scaring any future investors who might want to come to Ethiopia. There is also a grievance among other Ethnic groups with in the Army .The reason TPLF placed majority of the Mechanized Army in Tigray region is to kick out other Ethnic groups from the Army and build the Tigray republic with the modern armament it needs.There is no time in the history of EPRDF/Weyanne that the throne of the regime has been shaked in which they are fighting for their survival.


Ethiopia’s State of Emergency


On October 9, 2016, the Weyane led Ethiopian government have announced a six-month state of emergency following the destruction of some government buildings and private property by demonstrators. Over the past year, Weyane forces have killed hundreds of protesters and detained tens of thousands in two regions where there have been numerous protests over government policies.

“Ethiopia’s state of emergency bans nearly all speech that the government disagrees with anywhere in the country for at least six months,” said Felix Horne, senior Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The state of emergency hands the army new sweeping powers to crack down on demonstrators, further limiting the space for peaceful dissent.”

Under the new state of emergency, the army can be deployed country-wide for at least six months. The implementing directive prescribes draconian restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and assembly that go far beyond what is permissible under international law and signal an increased militarized response to the situation. The directive effectively codifies many of the security forces’ abusive tactics that Human Rights Watch has documented since the protests began.

The directive includes far-reaching restrictions on sharing information on social media, watching diaspora television stations like ESAT, and closing businesses as a gesture of protest, as well as curtailing opposition parties’ ability to communicate with the media. It specifically bans writing or sharing material via any platform that “could create misunderstanding between people or unrest.”

It bans all protests without government permission and permits arrest without court order in “a place assigned by the command post until the end of the state of emergency.” It also permits “rehabilitation” – a euphemism for short-term detention often involving physical punishment. Many of these restrictions are country-wide and not limited to the two of Ethiopia’s nine regions where most of the unrest took place.

Under international law, during a state of emergency a government may only suspend certain rights to the extent permitted by the “exigencies of the situation.” Many of the measures, including the restrictions on freedom of expression, assembly, and association go far beyond what is permitted under international law.

The government reports that since the state of emergency began, 1,600 people have been arrested, including about 50 for closing their businesses. Human Rights Watch also has received unconfirmed reports of unlawful killings, mass arrests, and looting of houses and businesses by the security forces. There have been some armed clashes between security forces and unidentified groups. Mobile phone access to the internet has been blocked since October 5. Addis Standard, a monthly English language magazine and one of the few independent publications left in Ethiopia, announced on October 25 that it was halting publication of its print edition due to state-of-emergency restrictions.

Large-scale, and mainly peaceful anti-government protests have been sweeping through Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, since November 2015, and the Amhara region since July 2016. Ethiopian security forces have killed more than 500 people during protests over the last year. These protests occurred in a context of the near-total closure of political space.

Protesters have voiced a variety of concerns, including issues related to development, the lack of political space, the brutality of the security forces, and domination of economic and political affairs by people affiliated with the ruling party. The emergency measures send a strong and chilling message that rather than dealing with expressed grievances and ensuring accountability for violence by both government forces and protesters, the government will continue and probably escalate the militarized response.

On October 2, in Bishoftu, a town 40 kilometers southeast of the capital, Addis Ababa, tensions ignited at the annual Irreecha festival – an important Oromo cultural event that draws millions of people each year. Security forces confronted huge crowds with live ammunation and fired shots and scores of people then died . Since then, alleged demonstrators have damaged a number of government buildings and private businesses perceived to be close to the ruling party, setting some on fire.

The government has in part blamed human rights groups seeking to document violations of international law for the recent unrest. Human Rights Watch has repeatedly called for an independent and credible investigation into the security force response to the protests and to the deaths in Bishoftu.

“Many of the abuses committed by security forces since November 2015 have now been codified under the state of emergency,” Horne said. “Trying to use the legal cover of a state of emergency as a pretext for the widespread suspension of rights not only violates the government’s international legal obligations, but will exacerbate tensions and long-term grievances, and risks plunging Ethiopia into a greater crisis.”